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Jörg Bibow lehrt seit 2006 am Skidmore College, einem renommierten Liberal Arts College im Norden des US-Bundesstaates New York mit den Schwerpunkten Internationale Finanzen, Internationaler Handel und Europäische Integration. Er ist mit dem Levy Economics Institute assoziiert und Mitglied des Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, DC.

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Jörg Bibow lehrt seit 2006 am Skidmore College im US-Bundesstaat New York mit den Schwerpunkten Internationale Finanzen, Internationaler Handel und Europäische Integration. Er ist Mitglied des Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, DC.

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Schulden, wie zuletzt nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg: Die Lage der US-Bundesfinanzen ist ein Symptom der Dysfunktionalität. Wie lange geht das noch gut?

\n

Die Vereinigten Staaten sind dort angekommen, wo sie nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg schon einmal standen: bei einer Staatsschuldenquote von rund 100 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts. Der Unterschied könnte größer kaum sein. Damals hatten die Kosten eines Weltkriegs die öffentlichen Finanzen belastet. Heute ist das Ergebnis einer jahrzehntelangen Abfolge von Steuersenkungen, einer Finanzkrise und einer Pandemie.

\n

Als Donald Trump Anfang 2025 ins Weiße Haus zurückkehrte, fand er zudem eine Haushaltslage vor, die derjenigen erstaunlich ähnelte, die Joe Biden vier Jahre zuvor übernommen hatte. Das primäre Defizit lag nahezu auf demselben Niveau wie nach Trumps erster Amtszeit. Die hohe Inflation der Pandemie- und Nachpandemiejahre verhinderte lediglich, dass die Schuldenquote noch stärker nach oben schoss.

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Die wirtschaftspolitischen Entscheidungen (einschließlich solcher mit finanzpolitischen Auswirkungen) des wiedergewählten Präsidenten spielen sich heute vor dem Hintergrund einer Lage der Bundesfinanzen ab, die laut den Projektionen des Congressional Budget Office (CBO) auf eine gewisse Eskalation und Brisanz hindeuten. In den nächsten 30 Jahren soll die Schuldenquote um rund 75 Prozent (und rund 75 Prozentpunkte) auf dann 175 Prozent ansteigen – ein ohne Frage dramatischer Anstieg.

"},{"__typename":"DatoCmsText","id":"DatoCmsText-SR7xYMJERTi1yD1IVT2Vsw-de","text":"

"},{"__typename":"DatoCmsText","id":"DatoCmsText-aU0xNzuvT16tw-Xqd60p3A-de","text":"

Ein Horizont von 30 Jahren bietet natürlich viel Gelegenheit für eine Kurswende. Zurzeit gibt es dafür allerdings keinerlei Anzeichen. Weder für Republikaner noch für Demokraten scheint die Finanzlage Priorität oder auch nur einer Beachtung Wert zu sein.

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Natürlich hat sich Japan in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten in diesen finanziellen „Höhenlagen“ bewegt und bis heute überlebt. Für Amerika wäre es dagegen Neuland. Auf dem Niveau einer hohen Schuldenquote zu operieren ist die eine Sache, der rasante Anstieg in Zeiten annähernder Vollbeschäftigung eine andere. Was passiert hier?

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Projektionen wie die des CBO basieren auf verschiedenen, für die Entwicklung der Staatsverschuldung kritischen Annahmen: zum einen die Spezifika des Steuersystems, das dank des „One Big Beautiful Bill“ verändert wurde. Zum anderen besondere Annahmen zum realen Wirtschaftswachstum, Inflation und dem Zinsniveau.

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Das Zinsniveau bestimmt die Zinslast auf die Bundesschulden und damit das Haushaltsdefizit, den Zähler der Quote. Wachstum und Inflation betreffen den Nenner der Quote. Für die Inflation unterstellt das CBO, das sie der Zielmarke der Federal Reserve von zwei Prozent entsprechen wird. Damit bleiben Zins und Wirtschaftswachstum als die großen Unbekannten.

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Zinszahlung ein Argument gegen Staatsverschuldung?","publishDate":"2023-12-14T00:00:00+01:00","id":"DatoCmsArticle-PRo-x7pRQteh0nBGS2oTHQ-de","slug":"ist-zinszahlung-ein-argument-gegen-staatsverschuldung","articleType":"Normal","authors":[{"name":"Erik Jochem","lastname":"Jochem","firstname":"Erik"}],"image":{"fixed":{"aspectRatio":1.7647058823529411,"base64":"data:image/png;base64,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","sizes":null,"height":85,"srcSet":"https://www.datocms-assets.com/19658/1702564561-imago0137147543h-edited.png?auto=format&crop=focalpoint&dpr=1&fit=crop&fp-x=0.5&fp-y=0.5&h=85&w=150 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Die längerfristigen Zinsen waren seit der Großen Rezession bis zum Anstieg der Inflation im Jahr 2021 sehr niedrig geblieben. Die äußerst expansive Geldpolitik der Federal Reserve (und anderer Zentralbanken) war hierfür maßgeblich verantwortlich. Doch diese Zeiten sind vorbei. Das CBO macht hierzu konventionelle Annahmen, die sich an der längerfristigen Vergangenheit orientieren.

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Auch die CBO-Annahmen zum zukünftigen Wirtschaftswachstum orientieren sich an der längerfristigen Vergangenheit. Der herrschende KI-Boom findet dabei Berücksichtigung, aber das überparteiliche CBO unterstellt keinen von den vergangenen Erfahrungen zu stark abweichenden Einfluss.

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Entsprechende Enttäuschung war hierzu aus republikanischen Kreisen zu hören: „Ich halte die verblüffend niedrigen Annahmen des CBO zum Wirtschaftswachstum für völlig verfehlt“, sagte der Vorsitzende des Haushaltsausschusses des Repräsentantenhauses, Jodey Arrington. „Dank der wachstumsfördernden Politik der Republikaner sinken die Zinsen, die Unternehmensinvestitionen ziehen an, und das BIP-Wachstum steuert auf drei Prozent oder mehr zu.“

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Die Bemerkung ist aufschlussreich, weil sie die wirtschaftspolitische Denkweise vieler Republikaner treffend widerspiegelt. Ihre Logik lautet: Gelingt es, das Wirtschaftswachstum dauerhaft auf drei Prozent oder mehr zu steigern, würde die vom CBO prognostizierte Schuldenexplosion weitgehend ausbleiben. Die Schuldenquote würde nicht mehr steil ansteigen, sondern sich deutlich stabiler entwickeln. Das Problem schiene damit gelöst.

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Doch wie realistisch ist dieses Szenario? Handelt es sich um eine plausible Wachstumsprognose oder eher um eine Neuauflage jener angebotsökonomischen Hoffnungen, die seit den 1980er Jahren mit Verweis auf die Laffer-Kurve immer wieder Steuersenkungen rechtfertigten? Deren Versprechen lautete, dass höheres Wachstum die daraus resultierenden Einnahmeausfälle weitgehend kompensieren werde. Die Erfahrung zeigt jedoch, dass sich diese Erwartungen oft als zu optimistisch erwiesen.

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Natürlich sind drei Prozent Wachstum nicht unmöglich. In den letzten beiden Jahren der Joe Biden Regierung war Amerika tatsachlich jeweils um knapp drei Prozent gewachsen. Im ersten Jahr der Trump Regierung betrug das Wachstum aber gerade einmal zwei Prozent. Und das, obwohl der KI-Boom im letzten Jahr rasant Fahrt aufgenommen hat.

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Wie sieht also die vermeintliche „pro growth“-Wirtschaftspolitik der Trump Regierung aus? Im Wesentlichen sind hier folgende Maßnahmen zu nennen:

\n
    \n
  1. Steuersenkungen, insbesondere für Reiche und Unternehmen
    2. \n
  2. Zollerhöhungen, die als regressive Steuer insbesondere untere und mittlere Einkommensgruppen belasten
    3. \n
  3. Einsparungen im Wohlfahrtssystem (speziell bei der Krankenversicherung), die insbesondere untere Einkommensgruppen belasten
    4. \n
  4. Personaleinsparungen bei den Bundesbehörden (Stichwort: DOGE)
    5. \n
  5. Deregulierung des Finanzsystems
    6. \n
  6. Deregulierung bei Umweltschutz, Verbraucherschutz und Arbeitnehmerschutz
    7. \n
  7. Schaffen eines regulierungsfreien Raumes für die Tech Industrie (KI-Boom)
    8. \n
  8. Druck auf die Federal Reserve zur Senkung der Zinsen
    9. \n
  9. Einsatz brachialer Mittel zur Eindämmung der Einwanderung samt massenweiser Ausweisungen (Stichwort: ICE)
    10. \n
  10. Irankrieg
    11. \n
\n

Die Herausgeber des The Wall Street Journal preisen viele dieser Maßnahmen und ihr Gesamtpaket beharrlich als wachstumsfördernd an. Für Beobachter außerhalb des republikanischen Meinungsmilieus ist jedoch schwer erkennbar, worauf sich diese Einschätzung stützt. Vielmehr entsteht der Eindruck, dass hier erneut ein wirtschaftspolitisches Versprechen vermarktet wird, wonach kräftiges Wachstum die fiskalischen Probleme des Staates nahezu von selbst lösen werde. Das erinnert an die Hoffnungen, die einst mit der Laffer-Kurve verbunden waren: Steuersenkungen sollten sich durch zusätzliche Wachstumsimpulse weitgehend selbst finanzieren. Rückblickend erwiesen sich diese Erwartungen als Luftschloss.

\n

Tatsächlich ist die Finanzlage heute deutlich brisanter also zur Zeit der CBO-Analyse im Februar. Das Oberste Gericht hat Trumps Zölle für illegal erklärt, was Steuererstattungen von rund 150 Milliarden Dollar zur Folge hat. Während die direkten Kosten des Irankrieges vermutlich „nur“ rund 50 Milliarden betragen werden, hat der Präsident zugleich eine gewaltige Erhöhung des Verteidigungsbudgets um mehrere hundert Milliarden gefordert. Seit Februar sind die langfristigen Zinsen um rund 50 Basispunkte angestiegen – ein Faktor, der eine Größenordnung von Billionen ausmachen kann. Mit anderen Worten: Eine aktuelle Projektion der Bundesschuldenquote wäre deutlich steiler als noch im Februar.

\n

Das ist auch der Hintergrund für den jüngsten Anstieg der Bondmarktzinsen weltweit, der Hintergrund für die jüngsten Vorschläge des Präsidenten, der ebenso die Zentralbank kontrollieren möchte. Der gewaltige KI-Boom erreicht nicht die Gesamtwirtschaft, die unter Chaos und Unsicherheiten leidet. Die Lage der Bundesfinanzen ist ein Symptom von Dysfunktionalität. Land und Gesellschaft sind außer Rand und Band. Es scheint nur eine Frage der Zeit zu sein, wann der Damm brechen wird.

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